Bangladesh is trapped
between the Himalayas in the north and the encroaching Bay of Bengal to the
south. Bangladesh is most vulnerable to natural disasters due to the frequency
of extreme climate events and its high population density. Floods are frequent and
cause the greatest economic and human losses to the country. The flooding
problems are exacerbated by sediment transported by three major rivers- the
Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna.
Climate change poses significant risks for Bangladesh. The impacts of higher
temperatures, more variable precipitation, more extreme weather events, and sea
level rise are already felt in Bangladesh and will continue to intensify. The
impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but
also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extreme events,
including more intense floods, droughts, and storms.
These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of
Bangladesh and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people.
Impact on Bangladesh
In Bangladesh, climate change will affect many sectors, including water
resources, agriculture and food security, ecosystems and biodiversity, human
health and coastal zones.
1. Many environmental and developmental problems will be exacerbated by climate
change.
2. Predicted rainfall increases, particularly during the summer monsoon, could
increase flood-prone areas in Bangladesh.
3. Crop yields are predicted to fall by up to 30 per cent, creating a very high
risk of hunger.
4. Predicted temperature increase will cause the melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas.
In the short term, the global warming increases risk of flooding, erosion,
mudslides during the wet season. In the longer term, global warming could lead
to disappearance of many glaciers that feed many rivers in South Asia.
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)
Bangladesh has already achieved one of the key Millennium Development Goals
(MDG)
1. Gender parity in primary and secondary schooling. The country is on track to
achieve most of the MDG goals, even the difficult ones like infant and maternal
mortality by 2015.
However, the predicted adverse impacts due to global warming could reverse the
recent economic and social gains. The progress towards achieving the MDGs, such
as eradicating poverty, combating communicable diseases and ensuring
environmental sustainability could be in jeopardy.
Agriculture Growth & Poverty
Agricultural growth is especially effective in reducing poverty. Estimates show
that overall GDP growth originating in agriculture is, on average, at least
twice as effective in benefiting the poorest half of a country’s population as
growth generated in non-agricultural sectors. In sum, agricultural growth can
reduce poverty directly, by raising farm incomes, and indirectly, through labor
markets and by reducing food prices.
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
It is predicted that climate change could have devastating impact on
agriculture. Agriculture is a key economic driver in Bangladesh, accounting for
nearly 20 percent of the GDP and 65 percent of the labor force. The performance
of this sector has considerable influence on overall growth, the trade balance,
and the level and structure of poverty and malnutrition.
Moreover, much of the rural population, especially the poor, is reliant on the
agriculture as a critical source of livelihoods and employment.
The impacts of climate change could affect agriculture in Bangladesh in many
ways:
1. The predicted sea-level rise will threaten valuable coastal agricultural
land, particularly in low-lying areas.
2. Biodiversity would be reduced in some of the most fragile environments, such
as Sundarbans and tropical forests.
3. Climate unpredictability will make planning of farm operations more
difficult.
The effects of these impacts will threaten food security for the most
vulnerable people of Bangladesh. The country’s agriculture sector is already
under stress from lack of productivity and population growth. Any further
attempt to increase productivity will likely to add pressure to available land
and water resources.
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